AI Prediction Tracker

Partial update to my 'useful agents' timeline based on Operator release

I just think there will be something better

Test time compute paradigm of o1 series makes this even more likely. 'Meaningfully impact our lives' is vague, but we'll know it when we see it.

At least one firm will do major layoffs in this area and replace/supplement workers with AI systems. Customer satisfaction will go up not down.

For example, allowing the use of models during an interview, but having higher expectations

Perhaps GPT5, perhaps an agent, maybe whatever is next from Anthropic

o3/o4-mini already top 200. Similar 800 point jump would put next release at ~3500 ELO

People will still think primarily of chat interfaces as AI, but this will begin shifting in 2025

There's just too much latent creativity in the world that is enabled by these tools

Less optimistic than I once was about this as a path forward

Based on METR data showing doubling of task length capability

Doublings every 3 months for next year, then every 2 months following year. Would mean AI handles year-long tasks.

Normal people will become increasingly concerned about whether it will impact their industry and jobs

15th-85th percentile understanding will be increasingly done by AI

Updated timeline after Sora disappointment